11 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RW
🇨🇿Richard Wagner
ELO 1511
FormLWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Hofman
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1517
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
🌟Hofman rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (47)
Fair odds · Hofman
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 45% · 2.23· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.