12 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Mecl Jr
ELO 1649
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jr
AB
🇨🇿Ales Barton
ELO 1599
FormLLLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Barton
Fair odds · Jr
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H11-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.