11 Jul · 22:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇨🇿Michal Syroha
ELO 1407
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Syroha
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Berdych
ELO 1367
FormWWWWL
52%
48%
🌟Berdych stays under total as underdog 71% (28)
Fair odds · Syroha
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 72% · 1.39· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H15-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.