11 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Berdych
ELO 1367
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Barta
MB
🇨🇿Miroslav Barta
ELO 1395
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
🌟Berdych stays under total as underdog 71% (28)
Fair odds · Barta
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 27% · 3.64· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+28
H2H2-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.