11 Jul · 18:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
L1
🇨🇿Ladislav Havel 1956
ELO 1409
FormLWWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.961956
MS
🇨🇿Michal Syroha
ELO 1394
FormLLLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · 1956
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H22-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.