12 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AB
🇨🇿Ales Barton
ELO 1599
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Barton
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kanera
ELO 1584
FormLLLWL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kanera🌟Kanera covers set handicap as underdog 65% (31)
Fair odds · Barton
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H5-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.