12 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Michal Syroha
ELO 1394
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.961964
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1964
ELO 1423
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · 1964
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 74% · 1.35· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H20-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.