12 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Mecl Jr
ELO 1649
FormWLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jr
JK
🇨🇿Jan Kanera
ELO 1584
FormLLLWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kanera🌟Kanera covers set handicap as underdog 65% (31)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+65
H2H48-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.