12 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RG
🇨🇿Roman Guliak
ELO 1467
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zurek
FZ
🇨🇿Filip Zurek
ELO 1539
FormWWLWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Zurek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+72
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.