12 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1964
ELO 1423
FormWLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Tuma
MT
🇨🇿Miroslav Tuma
ELO 1464
FormWLWWL
48%
52%
🌟Tuma rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (45)
Fair odds · Tuma
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H22-33
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.