12 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MJ
🇨🇿Milan Jasek
ELO 1519
FormWWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jasek
RG
🇨🇿Roman Guliak
ELO 1467
FormLWWLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Jasek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H14-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.