12 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1570
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Navedla
MN
🇨🇿Matyas Navedla
ELO 1584
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Navedla rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (55)
Fair odds · Navedla
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H10-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.