13 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cabis
ELO 1636
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Revay
RR
🇨🇿Radomir Revay
ELO 1653
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Cabis🌟Cabis covers set handicap as underdog 66% (86)
Fair odds · Revay
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H11-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.