13 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TZ
🇨🇿Tadeas Zika
ELO 1614
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zika
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1587
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Zika rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (79)
Fair odds · Zika
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H26-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.