13 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vesely
ELO 1547
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vesely
JS
🇨🇿Jakub Stolfa
ELO 1531
FormLWWWW
51%
49%
🌟Stolfa covers set handicap as underdog 67% (21)
Fair odds · Vesely
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+16
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.