13 Jul · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇨🇿Jan Mecl Jr
ELO 1653
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jr
MZ
🇨🇿Michal Zahradka
ELO 1604
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zahradka🌟Zahradka covers set handicap as underdog 65% (84)
Fair odds · Jr
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H37-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.