13 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TK
🇨🇿Tibor Kolenic
ELO 1439
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Novotny
JN
🇨🇿Jaroslav Novotny
ELO 1477
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
🌟Novotny goes over total as favourite 65% (17)
Fair odds · Novotny
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.80· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.