13 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RP
🇨🇿Radovan Polasek
ELO 1665
FormLLWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Polasek
PW
🇨🇿Pavel Wawrosz
ELO 1632
FormWWLWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Wawrosz🌟Wawrosz covers set handicap as underdog 64% (69)
Fair odds · Polasek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H17-15
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.