13 Jul · 14:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
J1
🇨🇿Jaroslav Strnad 1964
ELO 1416
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.851964
VS
🇨🇿Vaclav Hruska Sr
ELO 1330
FormLLWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · 1964
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 11%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+86
H2H69-77
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.