13 Jul · 20:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TJ
🇨🇿Tomas Janata
ELO 1570
FormLWWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Janata
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pavelka
ELO 1562
FormWWLWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pavelka🌟Janata rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (37)
Fair odds · Janata
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 53% · 1.87· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H26-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.