13 Jul · 21:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Martin Vizek
ELO 1548
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Janata
TJ
🇨🇿Tomas Janata
ELO 1570
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vizek🌟Janata rarely covers set handicap as favourite 38% (37)
Fair odds · Janata
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.24· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H13-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.