13 Jul · 22:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pavelka
ELO 1562
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pavelka
MV
🇨🇿Martin Vizek
ELO 1548
FormWLWWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Pavelka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 24% · 4.14· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+14
H2H3-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.