13 Jul · 22:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇨🇿Jiri Stach
ELO 1467
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stach
DP
🇨🇿Daniel Priesol
ELO 1448
FormWWLLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Priesol
Fair odds · Stach
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 53% · 1.87· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.