13 Jul · 21:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pavelka
ELO 1562
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vedmoch
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vedmoch
ELO 1611
FormWWLWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pavelka
Fair odds · Vedmoch
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 47% · 2.15· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H12-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.