13 Jul · 16:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MH
🇨🇿Marek Holub
ELO 1457
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Unzeitig
DU
🇨🇿Daniel Unzeitig
ELO 1474
FormWLWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Holub🌟Unzeitig rarely covers set handicap as favourite 23% (31)
Fair odds · Unzeitig
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+17
H2H7-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.