12 Jul · 19:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1582
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Cabis
MC
🇨🇿Michal Cabis
ELO 1643
FormWLWWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Cabis rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (100)
Fair odds · Cabis
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+61
H2H7-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.