13 Jul · 22:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DM
🇨🇿David Mikula
ELO 1422
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Priesol
DP
🇨🇿Daniel Priesol
ELO 1448
FormWWLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Priesol
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 29% · 3.44· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H0-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.