14 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LM
🇨🇿Ludek Madle
ELO 1352
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Potensky
JP
🇨🇿Jan Potensky
ELO 1370
FormLLWWW
49%
51%
🌟Potensky stays under total as favourite 68% (41)
Fair odds · Potensky
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H19-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.