14 Jul · 18:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TR
🇨🇿Tomas Regner
ELO 1457
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Framberk
JF
🇨🇿Jan Framberk
ELO 1477
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Framberk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H0-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.