14 Jul · 03:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MW
🇨🇿Mark Robin Wagner
ELO 1514
FormWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tuma
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tuma
ELO 1566
FormWLWLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Tuma
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 45% · 2.22· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.