15 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MW
🇨🇿Mark Robin Wagner
ELO 1521
FormWWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Wagner
VC
🇨🇿Vladimir Cermak
ELO 1517
FormLWLLW
50%
50%
🌟Cermak covers set handicap as underdog 68% (91)
Fair odds · Wagner
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.