15 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AB
🇨🇿Ales Bayer
ELO 1519
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tuma
DT
🇨🇿Daniel Tuma
ELO 1568
FormLWWWL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Bayer🌟Bayer covers set handicap as underdog 66% (157)
Fair odds · Tuma
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+49
H2H20-29
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.