15 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LM
🇨🇿Ludek Madle
ELO 1353
FormLLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Novotny
LN
🇨🇿Ladislav Novotny
ELO 1404
FormWWWWL
47%
53%
🌟Novotny stays under total as favourite 71% (31)
Fair odds · Novotny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+51
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.