15 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PV
🇨🇿Pavel Varecha
ELO 1503
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Varecha
DM
🇨🇿David Mikula
ELO 1430
FormWWWLL
54%
46%
🌟Varecha stays under total as favourite 64% (28)
Fair odds · Varecha
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+73
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.