15 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇨🇿Milan Chalupnicek
ELO 1331
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Novotny
LN
🇨🇿Ladislav Novotny
ELO 1404
FormWWWWL
46%
54%
🌟Novotny stays under total as favourite 71% (31)
Fair odds · Novotny
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+73
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.