15 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vavrecka
ELO 1622
FormWWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Revay
RR
🇨🇿Radomir Revay
ELO 1644
FormWLLLW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vavrecka🌟Vavrecka covers set handicap as underdog 65% (138)
Fair odds · Revay
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H12-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.