15 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AB
🇨🇿Ales Bayer
ELO 1519
FormLLWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Wagner
MW
🇨🇿Mark Robin Wagner
ELO 1521
FormWWLWW
50%
50%
🌟Bayer covers set handicap as underdog 66% (157)
Fair odds · Wagner
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.