15 Jul · 21:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vedmoch
ELO 1554
FormWLLLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Janata
TJ
🇨🇿Tomas Janata
ELO 1554
FormLWLLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Janata🌟Vedmoch covers set handicap as underdog 63% (128)
Fair odds · Janata
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 38% · 2.66· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+0
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.