16 Jul · 00:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
EM
🇨🇿Erik Mares
ELO 1717
FormLWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mares
TP
🇨🇿Tomas Postelt
ELO 1653
FormWLLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Postelt🌟Mares rarely covers set handicap as favourite 26% (97)
Fair odds · Mares
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+64
H2H46-59
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.