15 Jul · 22:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇨🇿Miloslav Lubas
ELO 1359
FormWLLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Berdych
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Berdych
ELO 1359
FormLLLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Berdych
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~73 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+0
H2H18-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.