15 Jul · 22:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
RP
🇨🇿Radim Pavelka
ELO 1557
FormLLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Pavelka
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vedmoch
ELO 1554
FormWLLLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vedmoch🌟Vedmoch covers set handicap as underdog 63% (128)
Fair odds · Pavelka
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H14-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.