15 Jul · 20:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JT
🇨🇿Jan Trefny
ELO 1491
FormWWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vedmoch
MV
🇨🇿Michal Vedmoch
ELO 1554
FormWLLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Vedmoch
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.