15 Jul · 21:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PB
🇨🇿Pavel Berdych
ELO 1359
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Grohsgott
JG
🇨🇿Jiri Grohsgott
ELO 1378
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
🌟Berdych stays under total as underdog 68% (31)
Fair odds · Grohsgott
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H18-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.