16 Jul · 16:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JL
🇨🇿Jiri Louda
ELO 1606
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Louda
DH
🇨🇿Denis Hofman
ELO 1536
FormLWWWL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hofman🌟Hofman covers set handicap as underdog 65% (99)
Fair odds · Louda
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+70
H2H47-43
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.