16 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MW
🇨🇿Mark Robin Wagner
ELO 1527
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Cermak
VC
🇨🇿Vladimir Cermak
ELO 1537
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Cermak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+10
H2H3-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.