16 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SB
🇨🇿Samuel Byrtus
ELO 1534
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Byrtus
JS
🇨🇿Jan Stoch
ELO 1486
FormLWLWL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stoch🌟Byrtus rarely covers set handicap as favourite 30% (54)
Fair odds · Byrtus
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 34% · 2.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+48
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.