16 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PD
🇨🇿Petr Danko
ELO 1517
FormLLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Walek
AW
🇨🇿Adrian Walek
ELO 1526
FormLWLLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Walek🌟Danko covers set handicap as underdog 68% (22)
Fair odds · Walek
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.