16 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TV
🇨🇿Tomas Vinter
ELO 1594
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vinter
MW
🇨🇿Mark Robin Wagner
ELO 1527
FormLWWWL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Vinter
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+67
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.