16 Jul · 18:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇨🇿Jan Stoch
ELO 1486
FormLWLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Walek
AW
🇨🇿Adrian Walek
ELO 1526
FormLWLLL
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Stoch🌟Stoch covers set handicap as underdog 67% (21)
Fair odds · Walek
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 57% · 1.75· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H4-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.