16 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PD
🇨🇿Petr Danko
ELO 1517
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Heczko
MH
🇨🇿Marcel Heczko
ELO 1535
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
🌟Danko covers set handicap as underdog 68% (22)
Fair odds · Heczko
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H5-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.